Analytics
Resolved No on 2 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 48.5%. Yes opened at 50.5% on 13 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 15 daily closes on record from 13 Apr 2026 to 2 May 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 53% on 15 Apr 2026 and the lowest 30.5% on 28 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 20 points down, to 30.5% on 28 Apr 2026. $300.7 traded over the market's life.
1 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 3, 9:28 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 15 points, 13 Apr 2026 – 2 May 2026, chart shows 20%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Apr 2026 | 50.5% |
| 2 May 2026 | 51.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Jean123 | Yes | 100 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Themba Gorimbo and Jonathan Micallef at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 16, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-the2-jon21-2026-05-02
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