Analytics
Resolved Yes on 2 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 41.5%. Yes opened at 51% on 18 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 12 daily closes on record from 18 Apr 2026 to 2 May 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 61% on 28 Apr 2026 and the lowest 41.5% on 2 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 14 points down, to 47.5% on 29 Apr 2026. $125 traded over the market's life.
1 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 3, 8:58 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 12 points, 18 Apr 2026 – 2 May 2026, chart shows 30%–70%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Apr 2026 | 51.0% |
| 2 May 2026 | 41.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| tugggjsz | No | 5 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Themba Gorimbo and Jonathan Micallef at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026, goes the full scheduled number of rounds and the result is determined by the judges' scorecards. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." Draws decided by the judges' scorecards after all scheduled rounds are completed will resolve "Yes." Technical decisions or technical draws declared before all rounds are completed will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 16, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-the2-jon21-2026-05-02
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