Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 50% on 28 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 5 daily closes on record from 28 Jan 2026 to 1 Feb 2026, the highest close was 50% on 28 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 38 points down, to 12.5% on 29 Jan 2026. $3.11K traded over the market's life.
11 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 2, 12:23 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 28 Jan 2026 – 1 Feb 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Jan 2026 | 50.0% |
| 1 Feb 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 868 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 566 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 507 |
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 413 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Sebastian Szalay and Keiichiro Nakamura at UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2, scheduled for January 31, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond February 14, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-seb1-kei10-2026-01-31
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 322 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 244 |
| paas2 | Yes | 30 |
| Misty Horizon F967 | Yes | 25 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 23 |
| Cobalt Scout A2CB | Yes | 5.63 |
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