Analytics
Resolved No on 21 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 54%. Yes opened at 51% on 6 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 15 daily closes on record from 6 Mar 2026 to 21 Mar 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 52.5% on 14 Mar 2026 and the lowest 40.5% on 17 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 9.5 points down, to 40.5% on 17 Mar 2026. $1.2K traded over the market's life.
13 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 22, 10:30 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 15 points, 6 Mar 2026 – 21 Mar 2026, chart shows 35%–55%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Mar 2026 | 51.0% |
| 21 Mar 2026 | 46.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Amber Scout DEDA | Yes | 460 |
| Mealy-Sheath | Yes | 44.28 |
| tmmwettegehtauf | Yes | 26.79 |
| 4751346 | Yes | 23.32 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Christian Leroy Duncan defeats Roman Dolidze at UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy, scheduled for March 21, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond April 4, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-rom2-chr20-2026-03-21
| Tlgdnepae | Yes | 16.66 |
| Elegant-Eye | Yes | 16.66 |
| Keen Harbor 9FD0 | Yes | 16.66 |
| Emerald Pulse 380B | Yes | 16.65 |
| jjzzh | Yes | 10 |
| Violet Summit E2BF | Yes | 5.58 |
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