Analytics
Resolved No on 8 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 50% on 6 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 3 daily closes on record from 6 Mar 2026 to 8 Mar 2026, the highest close was 50% on 6 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 8 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 31 points down, to 19% on 7 Mar 2026.
Polymarket record as of Mar 8, 11:37 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 6 Mar 2026 – 8 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Mar 2026 | 50.0% |
| 8 Mar 2026 | 0.1% |
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Rodolfo Bellato and Luke Fernandez at UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2, scheduled for March 7, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond March 21, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-rod3-luk11-2026-03-07
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