Analytics
Resolved No on 8 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 76%. Yes opened at 51% on 27 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 9 daily closes on record from 27 Feb 2026 to 8 Mar 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 52% on 28 Feb 2026 and the lowest 20.5% on 6 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 32 points down, to 20.5% on 6 Mar 2026.
Polymarket record as of Mar 9, 12:59 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 27 Feb 2026 – 8 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Feb 2026 | 51.0% |
| 8 Mar 2026 | 24.0% |
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Ricky Turcios and Alberto Montes at UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2, scheduled for March 7, 2026, ends by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond March 21, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-ric12-alb10-2026-03-07
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