Analytics
Trading is closed with Yes last at 50%; no result has been reported.
Across the 30 daily closes on record from 15 Feb 2026 to 16 Mar 2026, the highest close was 66% on 17 Feb 2026 and the lowest 40% on 5 Mar 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 48.5%. Its largest one-day move was 16 points down, to 40.5% on 1 Mar 2026.
Polymarket record as of Mar 16, 4:55 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 30 points, 15 Feb 2026 – 16 Mar 2026, chart shows 30%–80%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Feb 2026 | 50.0% |
| 16 Mar 2026 | 65.0% |
Polymarket lists no holders for this market.
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Renato Moicano and Brian Ortega at UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2, scheduled for March 7, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond March 21, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-ren-bri3-2026-03-07
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