Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 95%. Yes opened at 48.5% on 11 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 22 daily closes on record from 11 Jan 2026 to 1 Feb 2026, the highest close was 50.5% on 25 Jan 2026 and the lowest 5% on 1 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 35 points up, to 50% on 23 Jan 2026. $3.4K traded over the market's life.
14 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 2, 8:21 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 22 points, 11 Jan 2026 – 1 Feb 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Jan 2026 | 48.5% |
| 1 Feb 2026 | 5.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 782 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 515 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 510 |
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 393 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Rafael Fiziev and Mauricio Ruffy at UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2, scheduled for January 31, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond February 14, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-raf-mau4-2026-01-31
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 289 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 220 |
| zook333 | Yes | 141.56 |
| kuranes90 | Yes | 100 |
| PauloV11 | Yes | 54.98 |
| Misty Horizon F967 | Yes | 25 |
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