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Resolved Yes on 1 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 22.5%. Yes opened at 48.5% on 11 Jan 2026. Before it settled, the high was 50.5% on 23 Jan 2026 and the low 22.5% on 1 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 22 points up, to 50.5% on 23 Jan 2026. $3.46K traded over the market's life.
8 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 2, 8:22 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 22 points, 11 Jan 2026 – 1 Feb 2026, chart shows 10%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Jan 2026 | 48.5% |
| 1 Feb 2026 | 22.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | No | 779 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | No | 521 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | No | 508 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | No | 288 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | No | 219 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | No | 20 |
| Link-Marine12 | No | 13.27 |
| Cobalt Scout A2CB | No | 5.63 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mauricio Ruffy defeats Rafael Fiziev at UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2, scheduled for January 31, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond February 14, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-raf-mau4-2026-01-31
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