Analytics
Resolved Yes on 12 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 32.5%. Yes opened at 50% on 28 Jun 2026. Before it settled, across the 15 daily closes on record from 28 Jun 2026 to 12 Jul 2026, the highest close was 55% on 6 Jul 2026 and the lowest 32.5% on 12 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 16 points down, to 39.5% on 8 Jul 2026. $6.75K traded over the market's life.
11 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 13, 3:26 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 15 points, 28 Jun 2026 – 12 Jul 2026, chart shows 20%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Jun 2026 | 50.0% |
| 12 Jul 2026 | 32.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| RadioFreeZerg | No | 78.89 |
| crazydent | No | 74.63 |
| sleezychecks | No | 29.81 |
| BabbanBillo | No | 25 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Paddy Pimblett and Benoît Saint Denis at UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2, scheduled for July 11, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 25, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-pad-ben8-2026-07-11
New to prediction markets?
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| Region69 | No | 3.13 |
| gemly | No | 1.52 |
