Analytics
Resolved No on 14 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 78%. Yes opened at 50% on 6 Dec 2025. Before it settled, the high was 50% on 6 Dec 2025 and the low 21.5% on 8 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 25 points down, to 25% on 7 Dec 2025. $1.67K traded over the market's life.
7 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 15, 8:29 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 9 points · 6 Dec 2025 – 14 Dec 2025 · axis zoomed to 10%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Dec 2025 | 50.0% |
| 14 Dec 2025 | 22.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 624 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 228 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 201 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 177 |
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 123 |
| DFarm | Yes | 14 |
| F.A. | Yes | 5.56 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Morgan Charrière and Melquizael Costa at UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape, scheduled for December 13, 2025, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond December 27, 2025, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-mor-mel4-2025-12-13
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