Analytics
Resolved Yes on 14 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 12%. Yes opened at 50% on 6 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 9 daily closes on record from 6 Dec 2025 to 14 Dec 2025, the highest close was 50% on 6 Dec 2025 and the lowest 7% on 9 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 30 points down, to 20% on 7 Dec 2025. $9.51K traded over the market's life.
9 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 15, 8:29 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 6 Dec 2025 – 14 Dec 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Dec 2025 | 50.0% |
| 14 Dec 2025 | 12.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | No | 626 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | No | 229 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | No | 202 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | No | 178 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Charrière" if Morgan Charrière is officially declared the winner of the fight against Melquizael Costa at UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape, scheduled for December 13, 2025. It will resolve to "Costa" if Melquizael Costa is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond December 27, 2025, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-mor-mel4-2025-12-13
| Bold Scout BD7E | No | 164 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | No | 148 |
| stojeden | No | 12.5 |
| assertequal | No | 11 |
| katalonia | No | 10.46 |
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