Analytics
Resolved No on 8 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 64.5%. Yes opened at 50% on 28 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 9 daily closes on record from 28 Feb 2026 to 8 Mar 2026, the highest close was 63% on 1 Mar 2026 and the lowest 35.5% on 8 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 23 points down, to 40% on 2 Mar 2026.
16 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 9, 4:43 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 28 Feb 2026 – 8 Mar 2026, chart shows 30%–70%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Feb 2026 | 50.0% |
| 8 Mar 2026 | 35.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| estrume | Yes | 1.75K |
| Immaculate-Digger | Yes | 115.7 |
| ir4nrekt | Yes | 60.61 |
| Jade Orbit C72A | Yes | 47.16 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Michael Johnson and Drew Dober at UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2, scheduled for March 7, 2026, goes the full scheduled number of rounds and the result is determined by the judges' scorecards. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." Draws decided by the judges' scorecards after all scheduled rounds are completed will resolve "Yes." Technical decisions or technical draws declared before all rounds are completed will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond March 21, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-mic4-dre-2026-03-07
| Safe-Waterskiing | Yes | 25 |
| Karltons | Yes | 18 |
| Oakledger | Yes | 5 |
| ZSM4736326 | Yes | 5 |
| Veltrona453 | Yes | 5 |
| M81Lx | Yes | 5 |
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