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Paper trading
Resolved No on 1 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 91%. Yes opened at 49.5% on 8 Feb 2026. Before it settled, the high was 50.5% on 9 Feb 2026 and the low 9% on 1 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 37 points down, to 13.5% on 23 Feb 2026. $4.15K traded over the market's life.
18 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 2, 8:25 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 22 points, 8 Feb 2026 – 1 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Feb 2026 | 49.5% |
| 1 Mar 2026 | 9.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| GooberThaGooner | Yes | 428.57 |
| Warm-Original | Yes | 125.03 |
| Spanish-Slice | Yes | 71.43 |
| alexob | Yes | 64.29 |
| astronova | Yes | 61.93 |
| Utter-Downgrade | Yes | 34 |
| Fatherly-Interject | Yes | 31.75 |
| Hard-To-Find-Longitude | Yes | 31.25 |
| vger7 | Yes | 20 |
| AzoTG | Yes | 10 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Marlon Vera defeats David Martinez at UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh, scheduled for February 28, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond March 14, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-mar8-dav32-2026-02-28
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