Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 84.5%. Yes opened at 50.5% on 8 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 17 daily closes on record from 8 Feb 2026 to 28 Feb 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 53.5% on 14 Feb 2026 and the lowest 15.5% on 28 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 36 points up, to 53.5% on 14 Feb 2026. $493.34 traded over the market's life.
8 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 2, 8:25 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 17 points, 8 Feb 2026 – 28 Feb 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Feb 2026 | 50.5% |
| 28 Feb 2026 | 15.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Ill-Informed-Shopping | Yes | 17.36 |
| 097235097 | Yes | 11.76 |
| 126Investments | Yes | 7.5 |
| Oakledger | Yes | 5 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if David Martinez defeats Marlon Vera at UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh, scheduled for February 28, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond March 14, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-mar8-dav32-2026-02-28
| Veltrona453 | Yes | 5 |
| M81Lx | Yes | 5 |
| shahsports | Yes | 5 |
| Vague-Parade | Yes | 5 |
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