Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 89%. Yes opened at 49% on 20 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 12 daily closes on record from 20 Jul 2026 to 1 Aug 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 49% on 20 Jul 2026 and the lowest 11% on 1 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 22 points down, to 26% on 31 Jul 2026. $380.48 traded over the market's life.
4 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 2, 6:53 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 12 points, 20 Jul 2026 – 1 Aug 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Jul 2026 | 49.0% |
| 1 Aug 2026 | 11.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| van1ty | Yes | 220.64 |
| Virtual-Crane | Yes | 86.31 |
| TheKingos | Yes | 44.83 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 15 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Marcin Tybura and Aleksandar Rakic at UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez, scheduled for August 1, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 15, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-mar12-ale15-2026-08-01
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