Analytics
Resolved No on 8 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 79.5%. Yes opened at 50.5% on 3 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 6 daily closes on record from 3 Feb 2026 to 8 Feb 2026, the highest close was 50.5% on 3 Feb 2026 and the lowest 18.5% on 4 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 32 points down, to 18.5% on 4 Feb 2026. $1.32K traded over the market's life.
11 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 9, 8:25 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 6 points, 3 Feb 2026 – 8 Feb 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Feb 2026 | 50.5% |
| 8 Feb 2026 | 20.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Super-Read | Yes | 346.34 |
| kfirklein | Yes | 125.81 |
| Vincetius | Yes | 84.8 |
| paas2 | Yes | 30 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vinicius Oliveira defeats Mario Bautista at UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira, scheduled for February 7, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond February 21, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-mar-vin9-2026-02-07
| Misty Horizon F967 | Yes | 25 |
| PauloV11 | Yes | 20.3 |
| GraspingFate | Yes | 20 |
| BoinkDoinks | Yes | 20 |
| Cobalt Scout A2CB | Yes | 11.26 |
| Pipe522 | Yes | 3.23 |
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