Analytics
Resolved No on 8 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 87.5%. Yes opened at 44.5% on 4 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 5 daily closes on record from 4 Aug 2026 to 8 Aug 2026, the highest close was 44.5% on 4 Aug 2026 and the lowest 12.5% on 8 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 17 points down, to 27.5% on 5 Aug 2026. $2.12K traded over the market's life.
6 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 9, 10:43 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 4 Aug 2026 – 8 Aug 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Aug 2026 | 44.5% |
| 8 Aug 2026 | 12.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| TheWindKnowsmyName | Yes | 1.38K |
| Whirlwind-Loss | Yes | 533.33 |
| TheKingos | Yes | 33.67 |
| Scornful-Outlook | Yes | 6.25 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Manoel Sousa and Richie Miranda at UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld, scheduled for August 8, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 22, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-man15-rmiran-2026-08-08
| triklozoid | Yes | 5 |
| shahsports | Yes | 5 |
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