Analytics
Resolved Juan Diaz on 17 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Juan Diaz at 32.5%. Yes opened at 50.5% on 26 Apr 2026. Before it settled, the high was 76% on 27 Apr 2026 and the low 50% on 29 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 26 points up, to 76% on 27 Apr 2026. $1.22M traded over the market's life.
243 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 18, 4:14 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 22 points, 26 Apr 2026 – 17 May 2026, chart shows 40%–90%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Apr 2026 | 50.5% |
| 17 May 2026 | 67.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Warm-Faucet | Malcolm Wellmaker | 26.43K |
| TimmyTurner123 | Malcolm Wellmaker | 9.37K |
| Gold.Mansacks | Malcolm Wellmaker | 4K |
| leo0770 | Malcolm Wellmaker |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Malcolm Wellmaker" if Malcolm Wellmaker is officially declared the winner of the fight against Juan Diaz at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa, scheduled for May 16, 2026. It will resolve to "Juan Diaz" if Juan Diaz is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 30, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-mal3-jua6-2026-05-16
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| 4K |
| madkkee | Malcolm Wellmaker | 3.74K |
| Amazing-Hovel | Malcolm Wellmaker | 3.5K |
| Ilovemywife | Malcolm Wellmaker | 2.91K |
| sticksclicks | Malcolm Wellmaker | 2.5K |
| Alvves | Malcolm Wellmaker | 1.95K |
| LaBradfordSmith22 | Malcolm Wellmaker | 1.88K |
