Analytics
Resolved Luke Riley on 22 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Luke Riley at 0%. Yes opened at 64% on 6 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 16 daily closes on record from 6 Mar 2026 to 22 Mar 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 100% on 22 Mar 2026 and the lowest 38.5% on 7 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 35 points up, to 100% on 22 Mar 2026.
90 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 23, 1:38 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 16 points, 6 Mar 2026 – 22 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Mar 2026 | 64.0% |
| 22 Mar 2026 | 100.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| thepunterwhopunts | Michael Aswell | 24.56K |
| salahmh | Michael Aswell | 14.91K |
| jizzbucket57 | Michael Aswell | 8K |
| cat3xcat3x | Michael Aswell |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Luke Riley" if Luke Riley is officially declared the winner of the fight against Michael Aswell at UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy, scheduled for March 21, 2026. It will resolve to "Michael Aswell" if Michael Aswell is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond April 4, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-luk12-mic34-2026-03-21
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| 2.33K |
| RipNDip | Michael Aswell | 1.71K |
| Misty Horizon A7C6 | Michael Aswell | 1.71K |
| Decisive-Jackfruit | Michael Aswell | 400 |
| tAir7 | Michael Aswell | 288.35 |
| mVOFMQhly0Z8b | Michael Aswell | 243 |
| j11DvOAHZS6lnO | Michael Aswell | 202 |
