Analytics
Resolved No on 15 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 66.5%. Yes opened at 50% on 7 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 9 daily closes on record from 7 Aug 2026 to 15 Aug 2026, the highest close was 54.5% on 13 Aug 2026 and the lowest 33.5% on 15 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 18 points down, to 37% on 14 Aug 2026. $41.07K traded over the market's life.
17 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 16, 11:12 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 7 Aug 2026 – 15 Aug 2026, chart shows 20%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2026 | 50.0% |
| 15 Aug 2026 | 33.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| TheWindKnowsmyName | Yes | 2.14K |
| siick | Yes | 1.02K |
| kepikone | Yes | 105.03 |
| BlueBase-568 | Yes | 64.5 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Lucas Fernando and Rafael Tobias at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026, goes the full scheduled number of rounds and the result is determined by the judges' scorecards. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." Draws decided by the judges' scorecards after all scheduled rounds are completed will resolve "Yes." Technical decisions or technical draws declared before all rounds are completed will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 29, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-luc8-raf11-2026-08-15
| KayaTibet | Yes | 27.78 |
| sniper-yo333 | Yes | 12.5 |
| cro-cro | Yes | 12.5 |
| raven-cro | Yes | 12.5 |
| sniper-yo | Yes | 12.5 |
| RadioFreeZerg | Yes | 10.91 |
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