Analytics
Resolved No on 12 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 79%. Yes opened at 50% on 28 Jun 2026. Before it settled, across the 15 daily closes on record from 28 Jun 2026 to 12 Jul 2026, the highest close was 50.5% on 4 Jul 2026 and the lowest 21% on 12 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 22 points down, to 28.5% on 9 Jul 2026. $3.24K traded over the market's life.
5 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 13, 1:36 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 15 points, 28 Jun 2026 – 12 Jul 2026, chart shows 10%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Jun 2026 | 50.0% |
| 12 Jul 2026 | 21.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| siick | Yes | 2.5K |
| Definitive-Impropriety | Yes | 67.84 |
| Extra-Small-Parole-Carbon | Yes | 23.66 |
| roneasy | Yes | 16.13 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between King Green and Terrance McKinney at UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2, scheduled for July 11, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 25, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-kin-ter1-2026-07-11
| triklozoid | Yes | 15 |
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