Analytics
Resolved No on 11 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 90.5%. Yes opened at 50% on 28 Jun 2026. Before it settled, the high was 50.5% on 1 Jul 2026 and the low 9.5% on 11 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 21 points down, to 27% on 9 Jul 2026. $20.22 traded over the market's life.
1 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 12, 11:18 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 28 Jun 2026 – 11 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Jun 2026 | 50.0% |
| 11 Jul 2026 | 9.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| OLIZBZB | Yes | 19.18 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Kai Kamaka III" if Kai Kamaka III is officially declared the winner of the fight against Luke Riley at UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2, scheduled for July 11, 2026. It will resolve to "Luke Riley" if Luke Riley is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 25, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-kai2-luk12-2026-07-11
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
