Analytics
Resolved Yes on 11 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 29.5%. Yes opened at 50% on 28 Jun 2026. Before it settled, across the 14 daily closes on record from 28 Jun 2026 to 11 Jul 2026, the highest close was 50.5% on 2 Jul 2026 and the lowest 29% on 10 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 13 points down, to 37.5% on 9 Jul 2026. $5.84K traded over the market's life.
6 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 12, 11:34 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 28 Jun 2026 – 11 Jul 2026, chart shows 20%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Jun 2026 | 50.0% |
| 11 Jul 2026 | 29.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Mispriced47 | No | 999.99 |
| donkabadonka | No | 142.85 |
| sampo-one | No | 66.66 |
| shoemanhere | No | 29.27 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Kai Kamaka III" if Kai Kamaka III is officially declared the winner of the fight against Luke Riley at UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2, scheduled for July 11, 2026. It will resolve to "Luke Riley" if Luke Riley is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 25, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-kai2-luk12-2026-07-11
| Rocks3 | No | 13.51 |
| dfdfed | No | 0.57 |
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