Analytics
Resolved No on 11 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 42.5%. Yes opened at 50% on 28 Jun 2026. Before it settled, across the 14 daily closes on record from 28 Jun 2026 to 11 Jul 2026, the highest close was 57.5% on 11 Jul 2026 and the lowest 36% on 7 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 13 points down, to 36% on 7 Jul 2026. $8.51K traded over the market's life.
10 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 12, 11:28 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 28 Jun 2026 – 11 Jul 2026, chart shows 30%–70%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Jun 2026 | 50.0% |
| 11 Jul 2026 | 57.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| cloudman00 | Yes | 2.12K |
| siick | Yes | 1.46K |
| Melodic-Behalf | Yes | 89.76 |
| Forecastication2 | Yes | 65 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Kai Kamaka III" if Kai Kamaka III is officially declared the winner of the fight against Luke Riley at UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2, scheduled for July 11, 2026. It will resolve to "Luke Riley" if Luke Riley is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 25, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-kai2-luk12-2026-07-11
| sampo-one | Yes | 62.5 |
| zxcursed121 | Yes | 9.12 |
| The-Grand-Wizrd | Yes | 6.67 |
| GUINESS123 | Yes | 5 |
| joepeach99 | Yes | 4.76 |
| ijoker | Yes | 1.76 |
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