Analytics
Resolved Luke Riley on 11 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Luke Riley at 66.5%. Yes opened at 49.5% on 28 Jun 2026. Before it settled, across the 14 daily closes on record from 28 Jun 2026 to 11 Jul 2026, the highest close was 49.5% on 28 Jun 2026 and the lowest 26.5% on 2 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 22 points down, to 27.5% on 29 Jun 2026. $483.31K traded over the market's life.
97 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 12, 11:42 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 28 Jun 2026 – 11 Jul 2026, chart shows 20%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Jun 2026 | 49.5% |
| 11 Jul 2026 | 33.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| timezonewarrior | Kai Kamaka III | 46.8K |
| BoggsFromShawshank | Kai Kamaka III | 42.5K |
| hi774c | Kai Kamaka III | 38.22K |
| ferrariChampions2026 | Kai Kamaka III |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Kai Kamaka III" if Kai Kamaka III is officially declared the winner of the fight against Luke Riley at UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2, scheduled for July 11, 2026. It will resolve to "Luke Riley" if Luke Riley is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 25, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-kai2-luk12-2026-07-11
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| 36.35K |
| om777 | Kai Kamaka III | 13.5K |
| 0x0A77exmm | Kai Kamaka III | 8.4K |
| mastershi | Kai Kamaka III | 8.22K |
| exploitmaxxer | Kai Kamaka III | 3.84K |
| dex57 | Kai Kamaka III | 3.83K |
| ballinco | Kai Kamaka III | 2.5K |
