Analytics
Resolved No on 25 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 34.5%. Yes opened at 52% on 6 Jan 2026. Before it settled, the high was 65.5% on 25 Jan 2026 and the low 27.5% on 11 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 26 points up, to 60.5% on 24 Jan 2026. $3.79K traded over the market's life.
28 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 26, 8:21 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 20 points · 6 Jan 2026 – 25 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Jan 2026 | 52.0% |
| 25 Jan 2026 | 65.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Jade Quasar C580 | Yes | 276 |
| asdfasdfasdfaasdf | Yes | 136 |
| n00bdumpling | Yes | 100 |
| Kimhongil | Yes | 69.52 |
| Misty Horizon F967 | Yes | 40.73 |
| BarronTrumpp | Yes | 40 |
| kachesov | Yes | 34.09 |
| Failing-Panda | Yes | 32.61 |
| Clueless-Puppy | Yes | 26.32 |
| Aggravating-Undershirt | Yes | 22.73 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett at UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett, scheduled for January 24, 2026, ends by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond February 7, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-jus3-pad-2026-01-24
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