Analytics
Resolved Yes on 2 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 54%. Yes opened at 50.5% on 18 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 12 daily closes on record from 18 Apr 2026 to 2 May 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 56% on 28 Apr 2026 and the lowest 48% on 30 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 6.5 points up, to 56% on 28 Apr 2026. $392.87 traded over the market's life.
4 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 3, 11:24 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 12 points, 18 Apr 2026 – 2 May 2026, chart shows 45%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Apr 2026 | 50.5% |
| 2 May 2026 | 54.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Mispriced47 | No | 90.97 |
| CrovaxGargos | No | 46.51 |
| w34th3r | No | 2.11 |
| 39yhsd | Yes | 2.1 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Junior Tafa defeats Kevin Christian at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 16, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-jun4-kev18-2026-05-02
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