Analytics
Resolved No on 19 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 49%. Yes opened at 51.5% on 5 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 3 daily closes on record from 5 Apr 2026 to 12 Apr 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 51.5% on 5 Apr 2026 and the lowest 50% on 9 Apr 2026. $159.32 traded over the market's life.
1 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 19, 10:00 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 5 Apr 2026 – 12 Apr 2026, chart shows 45%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Apr 2026 | 51.5% |
| 12 Apr 2026 | 51.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| triklozoid | Yes | 50 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "John Castaneda" if John Castaneda is officially declared the winner of the fight against Mark Vologdin at UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott, scheduled for April 18, 2026. It will resolve to "Mark Vologdin" if Mark Vologdin is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 2, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-joh9-mar92-2026-04-18
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
