Analytics
Resolved No on 14 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 69%. Yes opened at 50.5% on 12 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 3 daily closes on record from 12 Dec 2025 to 14 Dec 2025, the highest close was 50.5% on 12 Dec 2025 and the lowest 26% on 13 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 25 points down, to 26% on 13 Dec 2025. $84.43 traded over the market's life.
Polymarket record as of Dec 15, 8:29 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 12 Dec 2025 – 14 Dec 2025, chart shows 20%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Dec 2025 | 50.5% |
| 14 Dec 2025 | 31.0% |
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Joanderson Brito and Isaac Thomson at UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape, scheduled for December 13, 2025, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond December 27, 2025, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-joa4-isa5-2025-12-13
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