Analytics
Resolved No on 14 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 56%. Yes opened at 50.5% on 12 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 3 daily closes on record from 12 Dec 2025 to 14 Dec 2025, the highest close was 50.5% on 12 Dec 2025 and the lowest 36.5% on 13 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 14 points down, to 36.5% on 13 Dec 2025. $64.09 traded over the market's life.
1 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 15, 8:29 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 12 Dec 2025 – 14 Dec 2025, chart shows 30%–55%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Dec 2025 | 50.5% |
| 14 Dec 2025 | 44.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| matterhorn | Yes | 36.17 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Joanderson Brito and Isaac Thomson at UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape, scheduled for December 13, 2025, ends by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond December 27, 2025, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-joa4-isa5-2025-12-13
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