Analytics
Resolved No on 14 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 65.5%. Yes opened at 50.5% on 12 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 3 daily closes on record from 12 Dec 2025 to 14 Dec 2025, the highest close was 50.5% on 12 Dec 2025 and the lowest 30% on 13 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 21 points down, to 30% on 13 Dec 2025. $619.15 traded over the market's life.
1 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 15, 8:29 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 12 Dec 2025 – 14 Dec 2025, chart shows 20%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Dec 2025 | 50.5% |
| 14 Dec 2025 | 34.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| matterhorn | Yes | 48.78 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Brito" if Joanderson Brito is officially declared the winner of the fight against Isaac Thomson at UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape, scheduled for December 13, 2025. It will resolve to "Thomson" if Isaac Thomson is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond December 27, 2025, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-joa4-isa5-2025-12-13
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