Analytics
Resolved No on 7 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 86.5%. Yes opened at 50.5% on 29 Nov 2025. Before it settled, the high was 50.5% on 29 Nov 2025 and the low 10% on 30 Nov 2025. Its largest one-day move was 41 points down, to 10% on 30 Nov 2025. $1.48K traded over the market's life.
3 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 8, 8:32 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 29 Nov 2025 – 7 Dec 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 29 Nov 2025 | 50.5% |
| 7 Dec 2025 | 13.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 1.09K |
| Dabud | Yes | 27.78 |
| rocketcrypto | Yes | 9.56 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Henry Cejudo and Payton Talbott at UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2, scheduled for December 6, 2025, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond December 20, 2025, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-hen-pay-2025-12-06
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