Analytics
Resolved No on 15 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 59%. Yes opened at 50% on 6 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 10 daily closes on record from 6 Mar 2026 to 15 Mar 2026, the highest close was 50% on 6 Mar 2026 and the lowest 17.5% on 14 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 24 points up, to 41% on 15 Mar 2026.
9 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 16, 3:25 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 10 points, 6 Mar 2026 – 15 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Mar 2026 | 50.0% |
| 15 Mar 2026 | 41.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Violet Summit E2BF | Yes | 16.74 |
| jjzzh | Yes | 10 |
| Oakledger | Yes | 5 |
| ZSM4736326 | Yes | 5 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Harry Hardwick and Marwan Rahiki at UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos, scheduled for March 14, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond March 28, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-har4-mar93-2026-03-14
| Veltrona453 | Yes | 5 |
| Meta0x77 | Yes | 5 |
| M81Lx | Yes | 5 |
| shahsports | Yes | 5 |
| Vague-Parade | Yes | 5 |
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