Analytics
Resolved No on 14 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 53.5%. Yes opened at 50% on 6 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 9 daily closes on record from 6 Dec 2025 to 14 Dec 2025, the highest close was 50% on 6 Dec 2025 and the lowest 35% on 7 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 15 points down, to 35% on 7 Dec 2025. $1.71K traded over the market's life.
8 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 15, 8:29 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 6 Dec 2025 – 14 Dec 2025, chart shows 30%–55%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Dec 2025 | 50.0% |
| 14 Dec 2025 | 46.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 642 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 236 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 207 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 183 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Pat" if Guilherme Pat is officially declared the winner of the fight against Allen Frye Jr. at UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape, scheduled for December 13, 2025. It will resolve to "Frye Jr." if Allen Frye Jr. is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond December 27, 2025, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-gui2-all6-2025-12-13
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 168 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 153 |
| edima | Yes | 19.23 |
| phoenixrising | Yes | 5.28 |
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