Analytics
Resolved No on 12 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 79.5%. Yes opened at 50% on 28 Jun 2026. Before it settled, across the 15 daily closes on record from 28 Jun 2026 to 12 Jul 2026, the highest close was 50.5% on 3 Jul 2026 and the lowest 19% on 11 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 21 points down, to 29% on 8 Jul 2026. $529.58 traded over the market's life.
8 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 13, 12:18 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 15 points, 28 Jun 2026 – 12 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Jun 2026 | 50.0% |
| 12 Jul 2026 | 20.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| technician2 | Yes | 250.02 |
| RadioFreeZerg | Yes | 79.9 |
| Enormous-Rostrum | Yes | 15.78 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 15 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Gable Steveson and Elisha Ellison at UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2, scheduled for July 11, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 25, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-gsteve-eli10-2026-07-11
| lysergic | Yes | 5 |
| Amused-Graffiti-Ride | Yes | 4.17 |
| 0xtrador | Yes | 1.14 |
| Rocks3 | Yes | 0.43 |
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