Analytics
Resolved No on 7 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 51.5%. Yes opened at 50% on 29 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 9 daily closes on record from 29 Nov 2025 to 7 Dec 2025, the highest close was 50% on 29 Nov 2025 and the lowest 34.5% on 30 Nov 2025. Its largest one-day move was 16 points down, to 34.5% on 30 Nov 2025. $2.56K traded over the market's life.
9 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 7, 5:11 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 29 Nov 2025 – 7 Dec 2025, chart shows 30%–55%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 29 Nov 2025 | 50.0% |
| 7 Dec 2025 | 48.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 1.07K |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 358 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 288 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 235 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Grant Dawson and Manuel Torres at UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2, scheduled for December 6, 2025, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond December 20, 2025, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-gra-man6-2025-12-06
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 193 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 184 |
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 138 |
| luuuur | Yes | 14 |
| 1MILorSuicide | Yes | 4.17 |
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