Analytics
Resolved No on 25 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 70%. Yes opened at 31% on 6 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 20 daily closes on record from 6 Jan 2026 to 25 Jan 2026, the highest close was 40.5% on 22 Jan 2026 and the lowest 19% on 18 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 15 points up, to 40.5% on 22 Jan 2026. $5.66K traded over the market's life.
17 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 26, 8:21 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 20 points, 6 Jan 2026 – 25 Jan 2026, chart shows 10%–50%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Jan 2026 | 31.0% |
| 25 Jan 2026 | 30.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| SpeedyPenguin5 | Yes | 330 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 269 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 242 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 188 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Derrick Lewis and Waldo Cortes-Acosta at UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett, scheduled for January 24, 2026, goes the full scheduled number of rounds and the result is determined by the judges' scorecards. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." Draws decided by the judges' scorecards after all scheduled rounds are completed will resolve "Yes." Technical decisions or technical draws declared before all rounds are completed will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond February 7, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-der-wal2-2026-01-24
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 142 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 105 |
| Immaterial-Termination | Yes | 72.89 |
| morpheus23 | Yes | 49.2 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 37 |
| Misty Horizon F967 | Yes | 25 |
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