Analytics
Resolved No on 25 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 40%. Yes opened at 25% on 6 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 20 daily closes on record from 6 Jan 2026 to 25 Jan 2026, the highest close was 61.5% on 24 Jan 2026 and the lowest 14% on 10 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 26 points up, to 58% on 23 Jan 2026. $2.4K traded over the market's life.
14 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 26, 8:21 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 20 points, 6 Jan 2026 – 25 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Jan 2026 | 25.0% |
| 25 Jan 2026 | 60.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 289 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 269 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 211 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 117 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Deiveson Figueiredo and Umar Nurmagomedov at UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett, scheduled for January 24, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond February 7, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-dei-uma-2026-01-24
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 97.74 |
| lemzz | Yes | 58.51 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 42 |
| Cristoapuestas | Yes | 27.03 |
| KuldneGarant | Yes | 25 |
| Misty Horizon F967 | Yes | 24.36 |
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