Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 57%. Yes opened at 48.5% on 11 Jan 2026. Before it settled, the high was 51.5% on 16 Jan 2026 and the low 28.5% on 26 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 23 points down, to 28.5% on 26 Jan 2026. $5K traded over the market's life.
22 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 2, 8:22 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 22 points, 11 Jan 2026 – 1 Feb 2026, chart shows 20%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Jan 2026 | 48.5% |
| 1 Feb 2026 | 43.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 518 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 505 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 287 |
| 879csd78 | Yes | 273.72 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 218 |
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 192 |
| Thirstywhalee | Yes | 174.07 |
| sadiistacks | Yes | 32.61 |
| Yolo-My-Saving | Yes | 31.11 |
| CryptoMaid | Yes | 30.58 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Dan Hooker and Benoît Saint Denis at UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2, scheduled for January 31, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond February 14, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-dan6-ben8-2026-01-31
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