Analytics
Resolved No on 17 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 52% on 26 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 22 daily closes on record from 26 Apr 2026 to 17 May 2026, the highest close was 52% on 26 Apr 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 17 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 39 points down, to 0.1% on 17 May 2026. $69 traded over the market's life.
2 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 17, 10:04 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 22 points, 26 Apr 2026 – 17 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Apr 2026 | 52.0% |
| 17 May 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| triklozoid | Yes | 50 |
| shahsports | Yes | 5 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Daniel Barez and Luis Gurule at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa, scheduled for May 16, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 30, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-dan20-lui12-2026-05-16
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