Analytics
Resolved No on 22 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 32.5%. Yes opened at 51.5% on 1 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 22 daily closes on record from 1 Feb 2026 to 22 Feb 2026, the highest close was 67.5% on 18 Feb 2026 and the lowest 51.5% on 1 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 7.5 points up, to 66% on 13 Feb 2026. $3.41K traded over the market's life.
11 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 22, 5:31 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 22 points, 1 Feb 2026 – 22 Feb 2026, chart shows 45%–75%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Feb 2026 | 51.5% |
| 22 Feb 2026 | 67.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Swift Pioneer C36D | Yes | 1.67K |
| paas2 | Yes | 30 |
| ThelastoneNB | Yes | 9.67 |
| Cobalt Scout A2CB | Yes | 7.34 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Dan Ige and Melquizael Costa at UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez, scheduled for February 21, 2026, goes the full scheduled number of rounds and the result is determined by the judges' scorecards. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." Draws decided by the judges' scorecards after all scheduled rounds are completed will resolve "Yes." Technical decisions or technical draws declared before all rounds are completed will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond March 7, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-dan2-mel4-2026-02-21
| Oakledger | Yes | 5 |
| wdsad1 | Yes | 5 |
| Veltrona453 | Yes | 5 |
| M81Lx | Yes | 5 |
| Vague-Parade | Yes | 5 |
| Cheese-crackers-and-a-slice-of-pickle | Yes | 4.11 |
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