Analytics
Resolved No on 15 Jun 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 91%. Yes opened at 50% on 26 May 2026. Before it settled, the high was 54% on 7 Jun 2026 and the low 9% on 15 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 38 points down, to 13% on 10 Jun 2026. $5.29K traded over the market's life.
25 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jun 16, 4:44 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 21 points, 26 May 2026 – 15 Jun 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 May 2026 | 50.0% |
| 15 Jun 2026 | 9.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| batou | Yes | 1.06K |
| Quiet Vector 2F63 | Yes | 600 |
| NIKO671 | Yes | 325.54 |
| MadTexan | Yes | 241.37 |
| 4751346 | Yes | 199.99 |
| Ample-Trim | Yes | 150 |
| Lavincey | Yes | 120 |
| carlosprada | Yes | 91.06 |
| polololo12 | Yes | 79.31 |
| Common-Outline | Yes | 63.95 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Ciryl Gane and Alex Pereira at UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje, scheduled for June 14, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond June 28, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-cir-ale30-2026-06-14
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