Analytics
Resolved No on 8 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 72%. Yes opened at 50% on 15 Feb 2026. Before it settled, the high was 50% on 15 Feb 2026 and the low 26.5% on 23 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 8.5 points down, to 27.5% on 26 Feb 2026.
85 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 9, 5:47 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 18 points, 15 Feb 2026 – 8 Mar 2026, chart shows 20%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Feb 2026 | 50.0% |
| 8 Mar 2026 | 28.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Keen Oracle 3567 | Yes | 1.12K |
| Unwieldy-Strap | Yes | 332.6 |
| CJNG | Yes | 230 |
| Spiffy-Oval | Yes | 168 |
| kashmoney4 | Yes | 137.04 |
| ParkerCrypto | Yes | 133.33 |
| Immaculate-Digger | Yes | 132.15 |
| Dim-Frock | Yes | 128.21 |
| Right-Paste | Yes | 116.51 |
| Capri.Money | Yes | 63.53 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Charles Oliveira and Max Holloway at UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2, scheduled for March 7, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond March 21, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-cha1-max1-2026-03-07
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
