Analytics
Resolved No on 8 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 53%. Yes opened at 50% on 15 Feb 2026. Before it settled, the high was 50.5% on 16 Feb 2026 and the low 30.5% on 2 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 17 points up, to 47.5% on 3 Mar 2026.
43 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 9, 6:23 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 22 points · 15 Feb 2026 – 8 Mar 2026 · axis zoomed to 20%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Feb 2026 | 50.0% |
| 8 Mar 2026 | 47.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Profitable-Suspension | Yes | 1.03K |
| Overjoyed-Cashier | Yes | 1K |
| OutterSpaceBro | Yes | 200 |
| BypassCp | Yes | 84 |
| Thin-Sermon | Yes | 67.83 |
| 0xbiilie | Yes | 60.19 |
| Happy-Go-Lucky-Clank | Yes | 57.6 |
| Flickering-Breakthrough | Yes | 50.2 |
| kirkirk | Yes | 40.23 |
| Meanmonkey662 | Yes | 40 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Charles Oliveira and Max Holloway at UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2, scheduled for March 7, 2026, ends by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond March 21, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-cha1-max1-2026-03-07
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