Analytics
Resolved No on 8 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 59.5%. Yes opened at 50% on 15 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 22 daily closes on record from 15 Feb 2026 to 8 Mar 2026, the highest close was 51% on 17 Feb 2026 and the lowest 26.5% on 23 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 24 points down, to 26.5% on 23 Feb 2026.
102 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 9, 7:55 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 22 points, 15 Feb 2026 – 8 Mar 2026, chart shows 20%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Feb 2026 | 50.0% |
| 8 Mar 2026 | 40.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Profitable-Suspension | Yes | 2.23K |
| Teppermeister | Yes | 2.13K |
| Itwasalladream | Yes | 2K |
| Dapper-Mattress | Yes | 1.26K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Max Holloway defeats Charles Oliveira at UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2, scheduled for March 7, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond March 21, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-cha1-max1-2026-03-07
| Monisi | Yes | 750 |
| hghar | Yes | 557.56 |
| Lollipop999 | Yes | 429.81 |
| 3-musketeers | Yes | 393.6 |
| Modern-Jiffy | Yes | 355.66 |
| Lustrous-Singular | Yes | 236.4 |
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