Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 74%. Yes opened at 50.5% on 8 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 18 daily closes on record from 8 Feb 2026 to 28 Feb 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 50.5% on 8 Feb 2026 and the lowest 20% on 12 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 31 points down, to 20% on 12 Feb 2026. $1.87K traded over the market's life.
12 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 2, 8:25 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 18 points, 8 Feb 2026 – 28 Feb 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Feb 2026 | 50.5% |
| 28 Feb 2026 | 26.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| InfinitePain | Yes | 215.78 |
| GooberThaGooner | Yes | 117.54 |
| proseandcons | Yes | 83.41 |
| JelJozzz1 | Yes | 44.39 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Brandon Moreno and Lone'er Kavanagh at UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh, scheduled for February 28, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond March 14, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-bra2-lon-2026-02-28
| DrPufferfish | Yes | 22.98 |
| astronova | Yes | 13.09 |
| Unsightly-Course | Yes | 12.5 |
| Oakledger | Yes | 5 |
| Veltrona453 | Yes | 5 |
| M81Lx | Yes | 5 |
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