Analytics
Resolved Yes on 1 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 41.5%. Yes opened at 50% on 13 Jan 2026. Before it settled, the high was 50.5% on 17 Jan 2026 and the low 21.5% on 26 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 29 points down, to 21.5% on 26 Jan 2026. $3.52K traded over the market's life.
6 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 2, 8:22 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 20 points, 13 Jan 2026 – 1 Feb 2026, chart shows 10%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Jan 2026 | 50.0% |
| 1 Feb 2026 | 41.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | No | 804 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | No | 529 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | No | 509 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | No | 298 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | No | 227 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | No | 21 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Billy Elekana and Junior Tafa at UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2, scheduled for January 31, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond February 14, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-bil6-jun4-2026-01-31
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
