Analytics
Resolved No on 22 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 50% on 6 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 13 daily closes on record from 6 Mar 2026 to 22 Mar 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 51% on 18 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 22 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 22 points down, to 27.5% on 9 Mar 2026.
2 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 22, 11:10 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 13 points, 6 Mar 2026 – 22 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Mar 2026 | 50.0% |
| 22 Mar 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| jjzzh | Yes | 10 |
| Violet Summit E2BF | Yes | 5.58 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Austen Lane and Iwo Baraniewski at UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy, scheduled for March 21, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond April 4, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-aus2-iwo-2026-03-21
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