Analytics
Resolved No on 17 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 82.5%. Yes opened at 50.5% on 26 Apr 2026. Before it settled, the high was 52% on 27 Apr 2026 and the low 17.5% on 17 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 16 points down, to 33.5% on 9 May 2026. $247.64 traded over the market's life.
2 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 18, 3:12 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 22 points, 26 Apr 2026 – 17 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Apr 2026 | 50.5% |
| 17 May 2026 | 17.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| IrvSol | Yes | 86.88 |
| shahsports | Yes | 5 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Arnold Allen and Melquizael Costa at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa, scheduled for May 16, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 30, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-arn-mel4-2026-05-16
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